Women in England and Wales are projected to have smaller families and have children later in life than previous generations, according to new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Girls turning 18 in 2025 are expected to have an average of one child per woman by age 35, compared to their mothers’ generation, who reached the same milestone by age 31. Over their lifetimes, they are projected to have an average of 1.52 children – down from 1.95 for their mothers and 2.04 for their grandmothers.
This marks the first time the ONS has explored future fertility trends. The study compared fertility patterns of women born in 1978, their mothers’ generation (born in 1951), and projected trends for their daughters’ generation (born in 2007).
The findings indicate a steady shift in family planning. Women born in 1978 had one child by age 31, whereas their mothers achieved this by age 26. Projecting this trend forward, those born in 2007 are expected to reach the milestone by age 35, while girls born in 2025 may not do so until age 36.
According to Kerry Gadsdon from the ONS, factors influencing this trend include “financial pressures and the timing of other life events such as partnership formation and moving into your own home generally happening later”.
Historically, women born in 1934 and 1935 had the largest average family sizes, at 2.42 children per woman. However, the average has steadily declined since the early 1980s, with projections showing a drop to 1.80 children for women born in 1990, 1.54 for those born in 2000, and 1.46 for girls born in 2025.
The analysis follows an earlier ONS report revealing that England and Wales saw record-low fertility rates in 2023. Only 591,072 babies were born, the lowest number since 1977 and a decline of more than 14,000 from the previous year.
Research suggests that delaying childbirth increases the risk of pregnancy complications and may lead to difficulties conceiving, particularly for women in their late 30s compared to those in their 20s or early 30s.
